Inge van den Ende

Probabilistic forecasting is essential, but choosing the right method is tricky. This talk introduces two lesser-known models — Level Set Forecaster and Quantile Regression Forest — that help you kickstart probabilistic forecasting without unnecessary complexity.

Probabilistic energy price forecasts can help balance the electrical grid in the face of volatile renewable energy sources, especially when the forecasts are well-calibrated. Conformal prediction can calibrate probabilistic forecasts, producing a distribution with valid coverage in finite samples.